Major League Soccer Predictions
Probabilities for Major League Soccer (USA) matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results โ published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.
5 complete predictions free every day ยท no account ยท no ads ยท zero bookmaker links
The model has analysed 15 matches from Major League Soccer in the next 7 days, the first on 22 October 2026.
Upcoming Major League Soccer fixtures
| When | Match | 1 ยท X ยท 2 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Most likely market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10 02:00 | FC Cincinnati โ DC United | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 20:30 | CF Montreal โ Nashville SC | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 22:30 | Columbus Crew โ Toronto FC | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 00:30 | New York Red Bulls โ Inter Miami | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 02:30 | Orlando City SC โ New York City FC | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 02:30 | DC United โ FC Cincinnati | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 02:30 | Philadelphia Union โ New England Revolution | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 02:30 | Atlanta United FC โ Chicago Fire | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 03:30 | Houston Dynamo โ Minnesota United FC | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 03:30 | FC Dallas โ San Jose Earthquakes | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 03:30 | Sporting Kansas City โ Austin | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 03:30 | Colorado Rapids โ Vancouver Whitecaps | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 03:30 | Real Salt Lake โ St. Louis City | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 04:30 | San Diego โ Seattle Sounders | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 04:30 | Portland Timbers โ Charlotte | ๐ this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability โ a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.
How well the model knows this league
On the calibration backtest (JanuaryโMay 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 218 matches from Major League Soccer. It expected 7.8% fewer goals than were actually scored โ exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. โ calibrated
That deviation is within the ยฑ10% we require to call the league's goal profile separately validated, not just covered by the global calibration.
The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.
What came true so far in Major League Soccer
66 resolved predictions: 56 hit, 10 missed โ 84.8%, with a statistical floor (Wilson 95%) of 74.3%. The sample is still small; we publish it because it is real, not because it is conclusive.
| Market | N | WIN | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 42 | 38 | 4 |
| Over 2.5 | 13 | 12 | 1 |
| Under 3.5 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| 1 (Home) | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Empirically calibrated probabilities ยท informational ยท not betting advice ยท 18+