Ukraine Premier League Predictions
Probabilities for Premier League (Ukraine) matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.
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The model has analysed 9 matches from Ukraine Premier League in the next 7 days, the first on 19 October 2026.
Upcoming Ukraine Premier League fixtures
| When | Match | 1 · X · 2 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Most likely market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.10 13:00 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv – Livyi Bereh ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:00 | Bukovyna – Hirnyk ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:00 | Chornomorets – Karpaty ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:00 | Dynamo Kyiv – Kudrivka ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:00 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:00 | Livyi Bereh – LNZ Cherkasy ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:00 | Polessya – Obolon'-Brovar ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:00 | Shakhtar Donetsk – Zorya Luhansk ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:00 | Veres Rivne – Kolos Kovalivka ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.
How well the model knows this league
On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 112 matches from Ukraine Premier League. It expected 3.3% fewer goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ✓ calibrated
That deviation is within the ±10% we require to call the league's goal profile separately validated, not just covered by the global calibration.
The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.
What came true so far in Ukraine Premier League
14 resolved predictions so far (8 hit, 6 missed). Too few for a verdict: under 30 results the percentage is noise, not performance, so we do not present it as such. The number that matters now is the global one on the track record.
| Market | N | WIN | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 14 | 8 | 6 |
Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+