UEFA Europa League Predictions

Probabilities for UEFA Europa League matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.

5 complete predictions free every day · no account · no ads · zero bookmaker links

The model has analysed 18 matches from UEFA Europa League in the next 7 days, the first on 22 October 2026.

Upcoming UEFA Europa League fixtures

When	Match	1 · X · 2	Most likely market
22.10 19:45	Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 19:45	Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 19:45	Ferencvarosi TC – Torreense	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 19:45	Juventus – Rennes	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 19:45	Lech Poznan – Sunderland	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 19:45	OFI – Bayer Leverkusen	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 19:45	Union St. Gilloise – Hapoel Beer Sheva	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 19:45	Sturm Graz – Marseille	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	Bournemouth – AC Milan	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	Celje – Red Bull Salzburg	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	Celtic – Celta Vigo	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	1899 Hoffenheim – Lyon	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	Jagiellonia – Anderlecht	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	Lillestrom – Real Sociedad	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	Olympiakos Piraeus – Sparta Praha	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	Omonia Nicosia – Benfica	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
22.10 22:00	Plzen – Levski Sofia	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership

Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.

How well the model knows this league

On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 81 matches from UEFA Europa League. It expected 2.5% more goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ✓ calibrated

That deviation is within the ±10% we require to call the league's goal profile separately validated, not just covered by the global calibration.

The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.

What came true so far in UEFA Europa League

24 resolved predictions so far (17 hit, 7 missed). Too few for a verdict: under 30 results the percentage is noise, not performance, so we do not present it as such. The number that matters now is the global one on the track record.

Market	N	WIN	LOSS
Over 1.5	13	12	1
Under 3.5	10	5	5
1 (Home)	1	0	1

Every day we publish 5 complete predictions for free, plus the entire track record — misses included. The rest of the day's predictions, the Discord delivery and the written analyses are part of the membership. Other leagues: all league pages. Această pagină există și în română.

Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+