UEFA Champions League Predictions

Probabilities for UEFA Champions League matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.

5 complete predictions free every day · no account · no ads · zero bookmaker links

The model has analysed 18 matches from UEFA Champions League in the next 7 days, the first on 20 October 2026.

Upcoming UEFA Champions League fixtures

When	Match	1 · X · 2	Most likely market
20.10 19:45	Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
20.10 19:45	Sabah FA – Borussia Dortmund ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
20.10 22:00	AS Roma – Slovan Bratislava ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
20.10 22:00	FC Porto – PSV Eindhoven ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
20.10 22:00	Liverpool – Villarreal ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
20.10 22:00	Manchester City – AEK Athens FC ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
20.10 22:00	Napoli – Bodo/Glimt ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
20.10 22:00	Paris Saint Germain – Barcelona ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
20.10 22:00	VfB Stuttgart – Atletico Madrid ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
21.10 19:45	Como – Manchester United ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
21.10 19:45	Lille – Galatasaray ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
21.10 22:00	Aston Villa – Viking ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
21.10 22:00	Bayern Munich – Arsenal ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
21.10 22:00	Real Betis – Feyenoord ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
21.10 22:00	Club Brugge KV – Lens ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
21.10 22:00	Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
21.10 22:00	Real Madrid – RB Leipzig ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
21.10 22:00	Sporting CP – Lask Linz ⚠️ uncalibrated	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership

Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.

How well the model knows this league

On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 81 matches from UEFA Champions League. It expected 10.1% fewer goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ⚠️ weak calibration

That deviation exceeds ±10%, so we mark the league explicitly as weakly calibrated: probabilities stay globally calibrated, but its own profile is not separately validated. We would rather say so on the page than have you not know.

The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.

What came true so far in UEFA Champions League

27 resolved predictions so far (20 hit, 7 missed). Too few for a verdict: under 30 results the percentage is noise, not performance, so we do not present it as such. The number that matters now is the global one on the track record.

Market	N	WIN	LOSS
Over 1.5	17	15	2
Over 2.5	6	4	2
Under 3.5	3	1	2
1 (Home)	1	0	1

Every day we publish 5 complete predictions for free, plus the entire track record — misses included. The rest of the day's predictions, the Discord delivery and the written analyses are part of the membership. Other leagues: all league pages. Această pagină există și în română.

Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+