Allsvenskan Predictions
Probabilities for Allsvenskan (Sweden) matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.
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The model has analysed 9 matches from Allsvenskan in the next 7 days, the first on 19 October 2026.
Upcoming Allsvenskan fixtures
| When | Match | 1 · X · 2 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Most likely market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.10 20:00 | Degerfors IF – Kalmar FF ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 23.10 20:00 | IF Elfsborg – Malmo FF ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 23.10 20:00 | Vasteras SK FK – Halmstad ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 16:00 | BK Hacken – Degerfors IF ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 16:00 | Sirius – AIK Stockholm ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:30 | Djurgardens IF – Orgryte IS ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:30 | Kalmar FF – IF Brommapojkarna ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 15:00 | Gais – IFK Goteborg ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 17:30 | Mjallby AIF – Hammarby FF ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.
How well the model knows this league
On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 81 matches from Allsvenskan. It expected 12.8% fewer goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ⚠️ weak calibration
That deviation exceeds ±10%, so we mark the league explicitly as weakly calibrated: probabilities stay globally calibrated, but its own profile is not separately validated. We would rather say so on the page than have you not know.
The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.
What came true so far in Allsvenskan
23 resolved predictions so far (13 hit, 10 missed). Too few for a verdict: under 30 results the percentage is noise, not performance, so we do not present it as such. The number that matters now is the global one on the track record.
| Market | N | WIN | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 14 | 7 | 7 |
| Under 3.5 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+