Segunda Liga Predictions

Probabilities for Segunda Liga (Portugal) matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.

5 complete predictions free every day · no account · no ads · zero bookmaker links

The model has analysed 5 matches from Segunda Liga in the next 7 days, the first on 23 October 2026.

Upcoming Segunda Liga fixtures

When	Match	1 · X · 2	Most likely market
23.10 20:45	Chaves – Vizela	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
24.10 13:00	Academica – Leixoes	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
24.10 20:00	Farense – Penafiel	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
25.10 13:00	AVS – Tondela	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership
25.10 16:00	Felgueiras 1932 – Lusitânia Lourosa	🔒 this match's probabilities are for members	membership

Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.

How well the model knows this league

On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 168 matches from Segunda Liga. It expected 0.6% more goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ✓ calibrated

That deviation is within the ±10% we require to call the league's goal profile separately validated, not just covered by the global calibration.

The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.

What came true so far in Segunda Liga

7 resolved predictions so far (7 hit, 0 missed). Too few for a verdict: under 30 results the percentage is noise, not performance, so we do not present it as such. The number that matters now is the global one on the track record.

Market	N	WIN	LOSS
Under 3.5	6	6	0
Over 1.5	1	1	0

Every day we publish 5 complete predictions for free, plus the entire track record — misses included. The rest of the day's predictions, the Discord delivery and the written analyses are part of the membership. Other leagues: all league pages. Această pagină există și în română.

Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+