Ekstraklasa Predictions
Probabilities for Ekstraklasa (Poland) matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.
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The model has analysed 10 matches from Ekstraklasa in the next 7 days, the first on 19 October 2026.
Upcoming Ekstraklasa fixtures
| When | Match | 1 · X · 2 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Most likely market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.10 20:00 | Wisla Plock – Radomiak Radom ✓ FREE TODAY | 54% · 22% · 24% | 80% | 59% | 56% | Over 1.5 goals · 80% |
| 23.10 19:00 | Motor Lublin – Zaglebie Lubin | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 23.10 21:30 | Widzew Łódź – Gornik Zabrze | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 13:15 | Piast Gliwice – Cracovia Krakow | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 15:45 | Korona Kielce – GKS Katowice | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 18:30 | Pogon Szczecin – Radomiak Radom | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 21:15 | Wisla Krakow – Raków Częstochowa | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 13:15 | Slask Wroclaw – Wieczysta Kraków | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 15:45 | Jagiellonia – Wisla Plock | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 18:30 | Legia Warszawa – Lech Poznan | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.
How well the model knows this league
On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 146 matches from Ekstraklasa. It expected 9.0% more goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ✓ calibrated
That deviation is within the ±10% we require to call the league's goal profile separately validated, not just covered by the global calibration.
The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.
What came true so far in Ekstraklasa
21 resolved predictions so far (17 hit, 4 missed). Too few for a verdict: under 30 results the percentage is noise, not performance, so we do not present it as such. The number that matters now is the global one on the track record.
| Market | N | WIN | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| Over 1.5 | 10 | 9 | 1 |
Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+