Eredivisie Predictions
Probabilities for Eredivisie (Netherlands) matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.
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The model has analysed 8 matches from Eredivisie in the next 7 days, the first on 23 October 2026.
Upcoming Eredivisie fixtures
| When | Match | 1 · X · 2 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Most likely market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10 21:00 | GO Ahead Eagles – Telstar ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 17:30 | Utrecht – PEC Zwolle ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 22:00 | ADO Den Haag – Heerenveen ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 13:15 | Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 15:30 | NEC Nijmegen – Groningen ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 15:30 | PSV Eindhoven – Feyenoord ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 17:45 | Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 21:00 | AZ Alkmaar – Twente ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.
How well the model knows this league
On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 157 matches from Eredivisie. It expected 4.2% more goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ✓ calibrated
That deviation is within the ±10% we require to call the league's goal profile separately validated, not just covered by the global calibration.
The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.
What came true so far in Eredivisie
22 resolved predictions so far (16 hit, 6 missed). Too few for a verdict: under 30 results the percentage is noise, not performance, so we do not present it as such. The number that matters now is the global one on the track record.
| Market | N | WIN | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 14 | 13 | 1 |
| Over 2.5 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| BTTS Da | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+