Super League 1 Predictions
Probabilities for Super League 1 (Greece) matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.
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The model has analysed 7 matches from Super League 1 in the next 7 days, the first on 24 October 2026.
Upcoming Super League 1 fixtures
| When | Match | 1 · X · 2 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Most likely market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10 19:00 | Iraklis 1908 – Kifisia | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 19:30 | Asteras Tripolis – Levadiakos | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 20:00 | AEK Athens FC – Panetolikos | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 16:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus – Kalamata | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 18:00 | Volos NFC – Panathinaikos | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 19:30 | Aris Thessalonikis – Atromitos | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 20:00 | OFI – PAOK | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.
How well the model knows this league
On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 132 matches from Super League 1. It expected 1.8% more goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ✓ calibrated
That deviation is within the ±10% we require to call the league's goal profile separately validated, not just covered by the global calibration.
The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.
What came true so far in Super League 1
17 resolved predictions so far (12 hit, 5 missed). Too few for a verdict: under 30 results the percentage is noise, not performance, so we do not present it as such. The number that matters now is the global one on the track record.
| Market | N | WIN | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| Over 1.5 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 (Home) | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+