Bundesliga Predictions
Probabilities for Bundesliga (Germany) matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.
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The model has analysed 9 matches from Bundesliga in the next 7 days, the first on 23 October 2026.
Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
| When | Match | 1 · X · 2 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Most likely market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10 21:30 | VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Monchengladbach | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 16:30 | RB Leipzig – SV Elversberg | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 16:30 | FC Augsburg – Union Berlin | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 16:30 | FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 16:30 | 1. FC Köln – FC Schalke 04 | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 16:30 | SC Paderborn 07 – Hamburger SV | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 19:30 | Borussia Dortmund – Eintracht Frankfurt | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 16:30 | 1899 Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 18:30 | SC Freiburg – Bayern Munich | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.
How well the model knows this league
On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 173 matches from Bundesliga. It expected 4.5% fewer goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ✓ calibrated
That deviation is within the ±10% we require to call the league's goal profile separately validated, not just covered by the global calibration.
The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.
What came true so far in Bundesliga
30 resolved predictions: 21 hit, 9 missed — 70.0%, with a statistical floor (Wilson 95%) of 52.1%. The sample is still small; we publish it because it is real, not because it is conclusive.
| Market | N | WIN | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 18 | 13 | 5 |
| Over 2.5 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| 1 (Home) | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+