Liga Profesional Predictions
Probabilities for Liga Profesional (Argentina) matches, computed by a Poisson + Dixon-Coles model and calibrated on real results — published and frozen before kick-off, verifiable after.
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The model has analysed 13 matches from Liga Profesional in the next 7 days, the first on 20 October 2026.
Upcoming Liga Profesional fixtures
| When | Match | 1 · X · 2 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Most likely market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10 01:00 | Newells Old Boys – Central Cordoba de Santiago ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 20.10 01:00 | Sarmiento Junin – Barracas Central ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 20.10 03:15 | Deportivo Riestra – Union Santa Fe ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 00:30 | Gimnasia M. – Platense ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 01:00 | Gimnasia L.P. – Sarmiento Junin ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 03:15 | Tigre – Atletico Tucuman ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 20:45 | Banfield – Lanus ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 24.10 23:00 | Talleres Cordoba – Defensa Y Justicia ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 01:15 | San Lorenzo – Newells Old Boys ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 03:30 | Rosario Central – Huracan ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 19:45 | Aldosivi – Belgrano Cordoba ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 25.10 22:00 | Independiente – Boca Juniors ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
| 26.10 00:15 | River Plate – Racing Club ⚠️ uncalibrated | 🔒 this match's probabilities are for members | membership | |||
Times are Romania time (CET+1). Probabilities are the empirically calibrated ones, not the raw model output. The last column only says which of the tracked markets has the highest calibrated probability — a description of the model's output, not a recommendation; a high percentage is still a probability, not a certainty. The model computes every match in the list; 5 a day are published free, the rest are for members.
How well the model knows this league
On the calibration backtest (January–May 2026, ratings frozen on 31 December 2025) the model saw 255 matches from Liga Profesional. It expected 4.0% fewer goals than were actually scored — exactly the deviation the per-league calibration corrects. ✓ calibrated
That deviation is within the ±10% we require to call the league's goal profile separately validated, not just covered by the global calibration.
The full method, with what we correct and what we don't, is on the methodology page.
What came true so far in Liga Profesional
27 resolved predictions so far (21 hit, 6 missed). Too few for a verdict: under 30 results the percentage is noise, not performance, so we do not present it as such. The number that matters now is the global one on the track record.
| Market | N | WIN | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 24 | 18 | 6 |
| Under 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Over 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Empirically calibrated probabilities · informational · not betting advice · 18+