Betting odds statistics: how often the odds come true
43,046 football matches played between 2026-05-19 and 2026-10-18, with the closing odds of a bookmaker licensed in Romania and the real result. No theory: for every odds range, how many came true. Updated weekly.
real data · no bookmaker links · informational · 18+
The odds say what the bookmaker charges; the "implied" probability is 1/odds, margin included. "Came true" is what happened on the pitch. The gap between them is the margin plus the bookmaker's error. The tables are on senior matches (34,436); women's, youth and reserve matches (3,435, 2,989, 2,358) are reported separately below, because their goal profile differs.
1. Full-time result (1X2): the odds and how often they came true
Every 1, X or 2 selection of every match, grouped by its closing odds. "Implied" = average of 1/odds in the range. "Floor 95%" = Wilson lower bound, so you can tell signal from noise.
| Odds | Selections | Implied (1/odds) | Came true | Floor 95% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.20 | 1,517 | 89.5% | 86.6% | 84.7% |
| 1.21–1.40 | 3,110 | 76.2% | 74.5% | 73.0% |
| 1.41–1.60 | 4,511 | 66.3% | 63.9% | 62.5% |
| 1.61–1.80 | 5,282 | 58.6% | 56.3% | 55.0% |
| 1.81–2.00 | 5,347 | 52.3% | 50.9% | 49.5% |
| 2.01–2.50 | 13,547 | 44.6% | 42.7% | 41.9% |
| 2.51–3.00 | 14,088 | 36.0% | 32.6% | 31.8% |
| 3.01–4.00 | 34,085 | 28.9% | 25.3% | 24.9% |
| 4.01–6.00 | 15,439 | 21.3% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| 6.01–10.00 | 4,938 | 13.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% |
| over 10 | 1,441 | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
Reading: at short odds, "came true" sits 1–3 points under "implied" — that is the margin. At long odds the gap grows to 4–5 points: outsiders win less often than the odds say, the well-known favourite-longshot bias, where the bookmaker takes most of its margin. Nowhere does "came true" beat 1/odds by a safe margin, which is the short answer to "which odds come true more often than the bookmaker says": none, in the long run.
2. The favourite: how often it wins, by its odds
| Favourite's odds | Matches | Favourite wins | Floor 95% |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 1.30 | 2,869 | 82.2% | 80.8% |
| 1.30–1.50 | 3,840 | 69.2% | 67.8% |
| 1.50–1.80 | 7,711 | 58.0% | 56.9% |
| 1.80–2.20 | 11,165 | 48.1% | 47.2% |
| over 2.20 | 8,850 | 39.3% | 38.3% |
A favourite under 1.30 wins about 4 matches in 5; one at 1.80–2.20 wins fewer than half. Short odds do not mean "certain", they mean "often".
3. The draw: how often it happens, by how balanced the match is
| Home–away gap (margin removed) | Matches | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| under 5 pp | 3,716 | 28.3% |
| 5–15 pp | 7,576 | 26.6% |
| 15–30 pp | 9,010 | 26.6% |
| over 30 pp | 14,133 | 19.3% |
The draw sits around 1 in 4 for balanced matches and drops to 1 in 5 with a clear favourite. "Balanced match, so it ends level" is not a rule: 3 balanced matches in 4 have a winner.
4. Goals: what the bookmaker says and what happened
| Market | Matches | Bookmaker says (margin removed) | Happened | Floor 95% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 27,706 | 75.2% | 74.5% | 74.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32,539 | 53.5% | 54.4% | 53.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32,057 | 34.0% | 34.6% | 34.1% |
| Both teams to score | 33,261 | 54.2% | 53.8% | 53.3% |
| Goal in the first half | 11,802 | 70.9% | 70.4% | 69.5% |
On goals the bookmaker is almost perfectly calibrated: the gaps are 0–3 points. Where there is a deviation it points to "more goals than the odds say", but it is small and covered by the margin.
Women's, youth and reserve matches, separately
| Market | Matches | Bookmaker says | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 4,607 | 77.9% | 77.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 7,722 | 60.2% | 62.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8,153 | 40.6% | 42.3% |
| Both teams to score | 8,266 | 57.2% | 56.0% |
| Goal in the first half | 1,063 | 74.2% | 76.5% |
5. The bookmaker's margin, by market
| Market | Average margin | Matches |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 9.6% | 43,044 |
| Over/under 1.5 | 9.5% | 32,313 |
| Over/under 3.5 | 9.0% | 40,210 |
| First-half goal | 8.8% | 21,878 |
| Over/under 2.5 | 8.6% | 40,261 |
| Both teams to score | 7.9% | 41,527 |
The margin is how far the sum of the implied probabilities exceeds 100%. At a 10% margin, odds of 2.00 "say" 50%, but the real chance the bookmaker pays for is about 45%. That is the price on every slip, however well you pick.
What to do with these statistics
Three things, in order. First, no odds "come true more often than the bookmaker says" in the long run: table 1 is the evidence, on 34,436 matches. Second, the bookmaker's calibration is very good on goals and on favourites, so the odds are an honest estimate of the chances, minus the margin. Third, if you want margin-free probabilities for every match of the day, computed before kick-off and publicly verified after, that is what POSEIDON is for: 5 complete predictions free every day, with a public track record and dataset.
Source: closing odds of a bookmaker licensed in Romania, collected daily since 2026-05-19, with final results. Margin removed with the "power" method (the favourite is more overpriced than the outsider). Updated 2026-10-19. This page contains no bookmaker links and never will.
informational statistics · not betting advice · no guarantee · 18+